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Hurricane Mitch:The story.....

The origins of Mitch can be traced back to a tropical wave that moved across the southern portion of west Africa on 8 October 1998. The wave progressed across the tropical Atlantic for the next seven days with west-southwesterly upper-level winds preventing significant development. After moving through the eastern Caribbean Sea on the 18th and 19th, satellite pictures showed an organizing cloud pattern over the south-central Caribbean Sea on the 20th. Shower and thunderstorm activity continued to become better organized in the southwest Caribbean Sea early on the 21st. Subsequently, a U.S. Air Force Reserve (USAFR) reconnaissance aircraft was dispatched to investigate the disturbance and found winds of 39 knots and a central pressure of 1001 mb. On this basis, the system became a tropical depression at 0000 22nd October, about 360 miles south of Kingston, Jamaica.

The depression moved slowly westward and strengthened to a tropical storm later that day. By the 23rd, the intensification of Mitch was disrupted by westerly vertical wind shear associated with an upper-level low north-northwest of the tropical cyclone. Later on the 23th, the upper low weakened, the shear diminished, and Mitch began to strengthen while moving slowly northward. Mitch became a hurricane at 0600 24th October while located about 255 miles south-southwest of Kingston, Jamaica.

Later that day, as it turned toward the west, Mitch began a period of rapid intensification. During a 24 hour period beginning on the afternoon of the 24th, its central pressure dropped 52 mbs, to 924 mbs. With a symmetric, well-established upper-tropospheric outflow pattern evident on satellite imagery, the hurricane continued to strengthen. On the afternoon of the 26th, the central pressure reached a minimum of 905 mbs. This pressure is the fourth lowest ever measured in an Atlantic hurricane. At its peak on the 26th, Mitch's maximum sustained 1-minute surface winds were estimated to be 155 knots, a category five hurricane on the Saffir/Simpson Scale.

After passing over Swan Island on the 27 October, Mitch began to gradually weaken while moving slowly westward. It then turned southwestward and southward toward the Bay Islands off the coast of Honduras. The centre passed very near the island of Guanaja as a category four hurricane. Mitch slowly weakened due to friction as its circulation interacted with the land mass of Honduras. From mid-day on the 27th, to early on the 29th,the central pressure rose 59 mbs. The centre of the hurricane meandered near the north coast of Honduras from late on the 27th through the 28th, before making landfall during the morning of the 29th about 70 miles east of la Ceiba with estimated surface winds of 85 knots and a minimum central pressure of 987 mbs. After making landfall, Mitch moved slowly southward, then southwestward and westward, over Honduras, weakening to a tropical storm by 0600 30th October, and to a tropical depression by 1800 31st October.

The overall motion was slow, less than 4 knots, for a week. This resulted in a tremendous amount of rainfall, estimated at up to 35 inches, primarily over Honduras and Nicaragua. The heavy rainfall resulted in flash floods and mudslides that killed thousands of people. It is noted that a large east-west mountain range, with peaks approaching 10,000 feet, covers this part of Central America and it is likely that this terrain contributed to the large rainfall totals. Some heavy rains also occurred in other portions of Central America.

By the afternoon of 2 November, meteorologists at the Tropical Prediction Center/National Hurricane Center (NHC) Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch (TAFB), and the Satellite Analysis Branch (SAB) of the National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service began to follow a cloud-system center, the remnants of Mitch, in satellite imagery over the Bay of Campeche. Shower and thunderstorm activity began to increase later on the 2nd. On 3rd November, a low-level circulation became evident in the eastern Bay of Campeche. A USAFR aircraft sent to investigate the system later that afternoon found 45 knot winds at 1500 feet and a minimum central pressure of 997 mb. Thus, advisories were re-initiated on Tropical Storm Mitch located about 130 miles southwest of Merida, Mexico. Mitch moved northeastward and weakened to a depression early on the 4th after it made landfall over the northwestern Yucatan peninsula. The center re-emerged over the south-central Gulf of Mexico by mid-morning on the 4th, and Mitch regained tropical storm strength. The storm began to accelerate northeastward as it became involved with a frontal zone moving through the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Mitch made landfall on the morning of 5 November in southwest Florida near Naples, with estimated maximum sustained winds of 55 knots. Mitch continued to move rapidly northeastward and by mid-afternoon of the 5th, moved offshore of southeastern Florida and became extratropical. The extratropical cyclone accelerated northeastward across the North Atlantic Ocean from the 6th through the 9th November.